Monday, February 25, 2013


One of the predictable Behavioral flaws in investing, described in an excellent presentation at the TSAA this month by Richard Lehman of U.C. Berkeley's Finance Dept., was the "getting even" trait of investors - even going back to old highs five years ago. This is resulting in the difficulty of getting through the 14,000 DJIA mark convincingly, which is illustrated in Technical Analysis by logical Support and (in this case) Resistance.

As noted in previous blogs, Caution is now being warned by several of my Sentiment Indicators: High readings by the NASD to NYSE Volume ratio (bullish complacency); lower VIX - in the low teens; Bullish percent still in the '80s; and the newsletter surveys Bulls over Bears.

More at:   

Here are the numbers: 


2/22/2013 2/15/2013
Indices: DJIA  14000 13981
  NAZ  3161 3192

SPX  1515 1519
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE   7.4/3.0 8.9/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.47 2.62

Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.2 12.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1386/1767 1735/1437
Weekly Net:
-381 298
     Cumulative: 147330 147711
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 576/82 688/47
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 405/74 452/60
McClellan  Oscillator -18 -6
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 966 1048
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 48.4 52.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.1 21.1

AAII  -Bull :wed. 41.8 42.3

Bear  32.5 28.7
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 17/19 17/12
CEOinsider selling 58:1 43:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  81 83
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag .5B
MMF flows Change in $B (23.8B) (12.3B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  Dec. 330B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond Dec. 764/329/243
Assets in  Billion$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.28%

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