Monday, September 26, 2011


Talk about mood swings! The last 2 weeks have seen intraday swings of nearly 1,000 DJIA points, mostly on European news - today's big upswing is due to more great news from them - LEVERAGE of CMBSs to solve the debt problem - why didn't we think of that before?
While most sentiment indicators are stuck in "eyes in the headlights" of the Sept.-Oct. period, equity mutual funds have seen losses of $75B the past 6 months - a good contrarian sign. Exceptions include week-to-week swings on the McClellan Oscillator, from plus 47 to minus 42 -pretty much my entire bounded range, now indicating (today's) market rise - at least short term; i.e. end-of-quarter. Although new highs to new lows are 1:12 on both the NYSE and NASD, up-down stocks (A/D) swung from  plus 1318(net) to minus 2431.
Bull/bear surveys remain inverted (Bullish FOR the market), with the AAII 25 vs. 40; and insider selling is down to 10:1, hardly climactic. My recently followed indicator - Commitment of Traders- finally show small traders net short for the past 4 weeks, although large traders have been short for months (smart money).
As seen below, my matrix of indicators has resurfaced after I was sabotaged by googledocs; thanks much to the able help of my expert tech person in Florida. If anyone wants very reasonable and experienced (30+ years, including NASA) online help, please contact him at I guarantee he is much less than the recent quote I got elsewhere at $125/hour.

Here is the matrix:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:113612161561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 736996-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:(42)47108(123)
McClellan Sum:(335)(205)1568(1514)
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.7B)
Money Market Flows(11.8B)(16.4B)

Baltic Dry Index:1907183811700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:10:110:1235:12.4:1

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