Sunday, April 3, 2011


With the S&P500 only a few points below the Feb. weekly closing high, this could be a Critical Market Juncture whether we continue blissfully upwards or slump into summer. Since 1950, in 15 out of 15 times, the market rose after mid-term elections in double digits - so far we are up 8.7%.
Except for 1990, this is the lowest the market's Q Ratio (Price to Assets) has been since 1983; current home sales were the lowest in 1982; personal savings peaked at 11% in 1983; the unemployment rate the past two years was the worst since 1982; and previous money supply peaks (a few months ago at 9.1%) are similar to '82, '88, and '02 rallies.
Shorter term, however, some extremes that foretold the recent correction still are present: the McClellan Oscillator is at +52; my cumulative A/D is at a record high; the Inv.Intell. Bulls remain above 50%, and the large speculators from the Commitment of Traders remain net short. Finally, the Bullish per cent broke up above 80 again. Here are the numbers:   

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:133213131561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 545696-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:5224108(123)
McClellan Sum:5974261568(1514)
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.5B)  
Money Market Flows3.9B(7.8B)

Baltic Dry Index:1530158311700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:28:123:1198:12.4:1

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