Jeremy Siegel. of Stocks For The Long Run is projecting a huge Bull market in the near future. Despite Martin Pring's second Lost Decade scenario (which I've also bought into with my DITM strategy), a couple of notable technicians are also calling for another Bull market. Tom McClellan , using a 10-year offset correlation to Oil's price moves, sees a rally AFTER 2012 (Mayan Calendar anyone?). Also Jeff Hirsch, of the Traders' Almanac tracks markets after wars and sees 38,000 DJIA by 2025.
Shorter term, however, much conventional wisdom sees lower prices in the second half of 2011, after QEII. Judging by the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear spread, it might even start very soon: Bulls at 57% are near their Dec. '04 high, while the Bears, slipping to 15.7% is a tenth above the recent multi-year low.
Here are the numbers:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 12380 | 12376 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2780 | 2789 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1328 | 1332 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 57 | 54 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 17.9 | 17.4 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (5) | 52 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 736 | 597 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 57.3 | 51.6 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 15.7 | 23.1 | 54.4 | 15.6 |
AAII Bull: | 43.6 | 41.8 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 28.8 | 31.1 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | .3B | ||
| Money Market Flows | 8.3B | 3.9B | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1430 | 1530 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 82 | 81 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 45:1 | 28:1 | 198:1 | 2.4:1 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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