Monday, January 24, 2011


Insider Selling rose to a whopping 198:1 over buying last week, although a couple of the Sectors were n/a, even though they were probably negligible. Unfortunately, this is one of the Sentiment Indicators that is more "Observable" than "Actionable", since the last time it was huge was in April of 2009, just when the huge rally was getting underway.
Many Indicators regressed to the mean a bit last week, after hitting alarming extremes - so I am still wary of a possible minor downturn. Both the Decennial cycle and the 4-year Kinchen cycle indicate an upward first half of the year, sloping down the 2nd half. That is also when the Stimulus ends, in June, affecting state and federal economies.
Although the "headline" DJIA rose last week, the SPX and Nasdaq fell, so maybe sideways is in the cards. The McClellan Oscillator, ratio-adjusted, went to -29 as the weekly A/D (advance/decline) fell 1,000 issues. As my 10-year Sentiment wrapup of Indicator extremes at major reversals shows, a negative MO is prevalent.
Finally, a major reversal in mutual fund flows - $3.8B into domestic equities, also does not bode well for stocks.
Here are the results:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:128312931561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 544796-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:(29)10108(123)
McClellan Sum:5516251568(1514)
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
US Equity-1 week lagn/a3.8B
Money Market Flows(35B)(2.2B)

Baltic Dry Index:1393148011700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:198:113:1198:12.4:1

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