Many Indicators regressed to the mean a bit last week, after hitting alarming extremes - so I am still wary of a possible minor downturn. Both the Decennial cycle and the 4-year Kinchen cycle indicate an upward first half of the year, sloping down the 2nd half. That is also when the Stimulus ends, in June, affecting state and federal economies.
Although the "headline" DJIA rose last week, the SPX and Nasdaq fell, so maybe sideways is in the cards. The McClellan Oscillator, ratio-adjusted, went to -29 as the weekly A/D (advance/decline) fell 1,000 issues. As my 10-year Sentiment wrapup of Indicator extremes at major reversals shows, a negative MO is prevalent.
Finally, a major reversal in mutual fund flows - $3.8B into domestic equities, also does not bode well for stocks.
Here are the results:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 11871 | 11787 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2689 | 2755 | 2805 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1283 | 1293 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 54 | 47 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 18.5 | 15.5 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (29) | 10 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 551 | 625 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 56.0 | 57.3 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 20.9 | 19.1 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 50.7 | 52.3 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 29.1 | 23.4 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | 3.8B | ||
| Money Market Flows | (35B) | (2.2B) | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1393 | 1480 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 86 | 87 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 198:1 | 13:1 | 198:1 | 2.4:1 |
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