Monday, January 3, 2011


According to both JP Morgan data and Ned Davis Research, the Pre-election year of the 4-year election cycle is the best for stocks - in fact, it is better than the the other 3 years combined from 1940-2008! Going according to  plan, the 4th Q of the previous year (just past) was the best of all quarters, and the new quarter ahead should be the best of the 4 this year, followed by the 2nd Q. 
That said, short term conditions -despite Monday's great start - still look to caution based on previously mentioned Sentiment extremes: the AAII Bulls coming off a 63% reading (Bears off 16%); the SPX stretched above its 200-day moving avg.; a low 2% dividend yield and a 16 VIX recent reading. Longer term, margin debt continues to increase to $270B.
For the first time since last Spring, equity mutual funds showed INFLOWS.
  Here are the numbers:

S&P 500:125712561561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 585396-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:1415108(123)
McClellan Sum:5384631568(1514)
           Newsletter Surveys

AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
US Equity-1 week lagn/a.3B  
Money Market Flows22.4B(9.3B)

Baltic Dry Index:1999199911700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:14:128:1108:12.4:1

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment