Monday, November 29, 2010


A couple of anecdotal market topping Indicators surfaced last week, too vague to be useful, however: the first was the higher incidence of large IPOs occurring at market tops over the past 10 years (e.g. GM). The other was the percentage of Harvard MBAs that migrated to Wall St after graduating - 30% was the previous top - now at 32%.

In the upcoming TSAA Review, of which I am the Editor, I am writing a piece on success, or lack of, market top Indicators over the past 3 years. During that time there were 7 reversals, tops and bottoms. The Review will contain the whole study, and will be sent out to members, with the TSAASF.ORG site carrying it at a later time.

The CBOE Equity put/call ratio was one of the most consistent, with the highs (fear-based occurring at bottoms) ranging from mid-60s to mid-90s; Lows were mid-40s to mid-60s on a weekly basis.

Another Indicator  with much success was the McClellan Oscillator (adjusted), which was mostly negative before oversold bottoms - higher at tops. Also among the best forecasters were the two surveys that I follow: Investors' Intelligence and AAII Bull/Bear ratios. These were especially effective when inverted (more Bears than Bulls).

Last but not least was the Bullish % -stocks on a Buy signal- which designated overbought and oversold conditions quite well.

Here are last week's numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:118911991561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 615996-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:(29)(20)108(123)
McClellan Sum:5016081568(1514)
           Newsletter Surveys

AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(2.8B)  
Money Market Flows15.4B(4.1B)

Baltic Dry Index:2170216411700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:55:134:1108:12.4:1

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