After a weak week in the markets, the G20 meetings seem to have reversed most of their directions, Sentiment is inconclusive: the McClellan Oscillator swung mightily from a +35 to minus 57 (oversold), yet the AAII Bulls went to a new multi-year high of 57%. Insider selling is huge , for 4 out of the past 5 weeks, although they were exactly wrong last time it exceeded 100:1 in April of '09, before the long rally.
I'm testing a variation of a new indicator -speculation- based on dividing Nasdaq Volume by NYSE, since 53% of the latter is now interest-rate type securities, whereas Nasdaq is more of the market. High readings are Bullish.
Here are last week's numbers:
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 11192 | 11444 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2518 | 2578 | 2805 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1199 | 1225 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 57 | 51 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 20.6 | 18.3 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (54) | 35 | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 868 | 931 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | 48.4 | 46.7 | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | 23.1 | 24.4 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 57.6 | 48.2 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 28.5 | 29.8 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (1.1B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | 2.2B | (6.6B) | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2454 | 2600 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 77 | 79 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 79:1 | 60:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
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