Monday, March 1, 2010


In my view, despite the nascent recovery underway, the gov't still wants to intervene in its awkward way ( my book proof has been 10 days so far in getting to me via the U.S.Postpartum Service). Hypothetically speaking, if the Fed had lowered rates via the Taylor Rule to 3% instead of zero, the $3+T in MMFs and at least an equal amount of T-Bills, CDs, etc. would have earned its holders $180B a year more (1/5th of the Stimulus without the debt) and consumers would be much more confident and happy - just my take.

Sentiment and the markets remain lamb-like so far in March, with the only extremes the CBOE put/call ratio at 70 puts over calls - the highest since Oct.1 of '09, the middle of the rally - other high numbers occurred in July - the start of the huge upsurge; and an 84 reading March 6 - A Day That Will Live.....

While breadth remains strong, survey letters and CEO selling are getting a bit toppy.

Here are the stats:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:110411091561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 706496-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:3156108-100
McClellan Sum:5063451568-1514
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.550.502.20.56
US Equity-1 week lag       n/a             0

Money Market Flows-1.6B-37.7B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsJan.731BDec.777B

Baltic Dry Index:2707270411700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:32:135:1108:12.4:1

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