Monday, March 15, 2010

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH ! :

The Ides of March, quadruple-witching, and the anniversary of the '09 Bull market are upon us. To paraphrase the dual Chinese symbol - where there is strength there is also the probability of a temporarily overstretched market.

The bullishness of this steady rally on huge breadth - my cumulative advance/decline total is setting its second straight record- is being done on below average Volume; the New Hi/Lo numbers are obscene: 898 to7 on the NYSE; the A/D was EXACTLY 2:1. Possibly Charles Biderman can shed some light on market flows next week when he comes before the TSAA group (www.tsaasf.org).

CEO Insider selling jumped to the highest since Jan. 8 (following the Sept.25 superhigh); the McClellan Oscillator is still just above +50, (my benchmark), coming down from +75. The Bullish per cent - stocks on Buy signals, jumped to 80%, off its 88 high, Nova/Ursa ratio of Bulls to Bear is at a complacent high 66.

Money market outflows are huge, but they do not seem to be going into stocks (negative last week).

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
DJIA:1062410566140936626
Nasdaq:2367232628051114
S&P 500:115011381561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 505996-10/0846-1/03
VIX:17.617.4908.8
McClellan Osc:5175108-100
McClellan Sum:11098041568-1514
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InvestorsIntel.Bull:
44.942.16322.21
InvestorsIntel.Bear:
23.622.754.416
AAII Bull:
35.934.9n/an/a
AAII Bear:
25.326.2n/an/a
Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:0.660.62.20.56
US Equity-1 week lagn/a-1.5B

Money Market Flows-39.7B-1.6B

ETF equity:Monthly TotalsJan.731BDec.777B

Baltic Dry Index:3316324211700663
Bullish %:
8076882
Insider Corporate Sellers:48:118:1108:12.4:1






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