Monday, June 15, 2009

Heeeeeeee's BACK!:

Just as with the 1987-88 stock market, the mutual fund investor was conspicuously absent for most the long rally - entering near the top. After a record 40% increase in stock prices this Spring, mutual fund inflows last week increased 10-fold, after being flat to negative for most of the year - ETF inflows also increased.
Also signalling a temporary market hiatus was the Investors' Intelligence Bull to Bear ratio - 47.7 to a mere 23.3%! The McClellan Summation Index is still overbought at over 1000 although the Oscillator dipped below zero, reflecting an inverse Advance/Decline week. Bullish Per Cent is also at an extreme level of 74.
This condition should at least cast a caution signal, if not a sell - there is still the possibility that the end-of-quarter may create some racing for the doors for the underinvested, possibly after quadruple-witching of options this week.
Here are last week's results:

MktSentiment. 6/12/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8800………8763.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1858………1849…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 946…………940………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …66…………..63……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 28.1………29.6…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-13………..12……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…1123……..1163……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…47.7………..42.5……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 23.3……….25.3…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……39.3/39.3….47.6/36.6…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……3583………3809…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…74…………74………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.13:1……….21:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. 13.8B……1.3B

ETF InflowsL……… 7.6B…….2.7B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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