Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different timeframes; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments,thanks to Haloscan, just click on "comments" and write away.

Contributors

Monday, June 22, 2009

5th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE!:

Thursday of this week I am giving a talk at the TSAA (see tsaasf.org for details) at GGU on which Sentiment Indicators have worked the best over this decade, calling top and bottom reversals. For those of you not in the area I would be happy to attach by e-mail (leonbrnt@aol.com) the following documents:
10-year SPX chart with dates of reversals
Definitions of each Indicator
Which Indicator was at an extreme at these turning points
Lecture of the meeting

Meanwhile, after calling the temporary top of last week, a couple of the more reliable Indicators are now in oversold territory: the put/call ratio at 73, and the McClellan Oscillator at -43. While the Inv.Intell. Bull/Bear ratio backed off its toppy level, the more reliable ( read "dumber") AAII is also oversold at 33.3/46.4.
Here are last week's results:

MktSentiment. 6/19/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8539………8800.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1827………1858…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 921…………946………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …73………….66……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 28.0………28.1…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-43………..-13……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…823………1123……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…44.8……….47.7……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 26.4………23.3…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33.3/46.4…..39.3/39.3…….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……4070………3583…………….11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…64…………74………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers.19:1……….13:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .. .8B……..13.8B

ETF InflowsL……… -.5B……..7.6B

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posted by Brent Leonard | 8:52 AM