Although the DJIA rose 100 points from the previous week, the Nasdaq sank 20; the CBOE put/call ratio shot up even higher to 79 (very bullish short term); the VIX did a mid-20 spike, although 4 previous larger rallies in '08 saw the spike above 30.
In the breadth area, 3 of the last 4 weeks saw 1300 to 1500 net decliners, and the new high/new low figures on both the NYSE and Nas were ugly :106/330 and 78/406, respectively. The McClellan Oscillator sank to -75 on its journey from -31 to -32, prompting the midweek rally; the Summation went negative for the first time in awhile (April 18).
The AAII survey inverted to a large 31/53 bear position, and the Nas to NY Volume ratio (speculation) rose to 9 points off its multi-year high of 177. The volume on the SDS etf (short the S&P) almost doubled its 4-week average, while flows into Money Markets saw a huge increase to $94B, 1/2 again as much as the old high in November '07, when the markets began their cascade downward. Finally, the Public to Specialist shorting jumped from 11 to 15 on the IBD scale.
Here are the full numbers:
MktSentiment. 6/13/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 12307………..12209………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2454………….2474…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1360…………1360…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …79…………..74……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03
VIX ………. 21.2………….23.5…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
McClellan Osc………..-32…………-31……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-15……………..254…………..1568-6/03.......-917
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…43……………44.8……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 32.6…………31.1………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……31.3/53.6…….43.5/38.0……..n/a n/a
IBD: Short Interest- 13.8…………14.38nh…………14.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…15.4…………11.5…….….21bl…………..1.0br
Bullish%- ………….44………….50…….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.10:1……..27:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers:Finance Most Sellers: Energy
Both leaders 2X nearest #2 sector
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
No comments:
Post a Comment