Tuesday, June 3, 2008

FANTASTIC VOYAGE:

Back from vacation, after impressing my family by placing first in guessing the midpoint on the flight to Maui (off by 23 seconds). Also the first time I had a cab to the airport overheat and not be able to continue.
Whle away, the market didn't overheat - more like a Linda Raschke-type 3-Up, 3-Down minicycle. After a flip-flop on the Recession % indicator, it will hit the waste bin, along with the Market Vane non-event number; circling the drain is the Birinyi bull/bear stat, as well.
Most indicators are lying in the midrange area, while the Bull/Bear surveys either narrowed (the Inv.Intell.) or inverted (AAII).
Short interest on IBD hit a new high, although as Barrons stated, much of that is used by nearly $2T in hedgefund long/short strategies.
Here are the actual numbers:

MktSentiment. 5/30/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 12638……….12479………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2522…………2444…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1400…………1375…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …63……………67……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 17.8………..19.5…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 30………….30…………….76(bullish)….28(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-18………..-35……………91-5/04 br......(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………340…………..390…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…37.9…………47.3……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 32.2…………30.8………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……31.4/45.8……46.3/34.3……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…51……………54…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 14.3nh………13.8nh…………14.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…10.4…………10.4…….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………23.8/42.8……31.8/40.9
Bullish%- …………55………….55sell…….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.9:1……..17:1 ………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Consumer Services
Most Sellers: Technology

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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