Tuesday, February 20, 2007

LET'S ALL GET HIGH:

Last week saw new highs, at least recent ones, in the DJIA, TRAN and UTILS, and the SPX, Russell 2000 and Nasdaq. This despite a 9-year low in housing starts (1/3 the job growth since 2000), and January starts down 40% from '06. Ben B. says several reports say there is a "tidal wave of defaults and foreclosures ahead", with over 1M in '06. Meanwhile Mike Santoli reports the weakest buying of Treasuries by foreigners since '02, although China now owns over $1T.
One of the chief demand sources of U.S.stocks, Japan carry-trade, may also slow if Japan starts raising rates.
Still, a scarcity of stocks due to M&A, Private Equity takeovers, ETFs and hedgefund overfishing, plus the ever-present liquidity from Asian and mid-East wealth, seem to bolster the market out of any correction. It's like coming to an intersection and both the green and red light are on.
Sentiment is nearing the yellow light, however, with extremes in new highs, advance/ declines, and the Bullish per cent at toppy levels. The ISEE call/put was over 150 -near the 200 bearish point, although the CBOE is at a recent high of 64 indicating hedging; the VIX is at a recent complacent low of 10, and the McClellan Summation topped 900.
After more than a year's absence of retail buying in Mutual Funds (U.S.) they have started tiptoeing in this year. Finally, I saw Insider Selling by key officers climb to 50:1, or 21M Buyers vs. 1.1B Sellers last week.
Here are the numbers:

Mktsentiment. 2/16/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12767nh...........12767...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2496............2502............1114
S&P500…….. 1455............1455............776
CBOE Equity put/call .64............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 10.0.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. 156...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……8...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 900...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..51.1...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 21.1 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear …….47.6/31.1.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 71......... 73..............24

Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………32.3/29.4
Bullish%- ………78...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

No comments:

Post a Comment