Monday, February 12, 2007

CycleAnalysis

Not exactly Sentiment, but I noticed in the IBD chart page that there seems to be a rhythmic 17 or 18-day cycle (connecting the cycle lows) going back to at least June. After the low there is a jump up into a new rally, so if this one isn't dead yet, it may reoccur later this week or next.
Despite last week's ugly ending, not much has changed in the Indicators. Exceptions were:
NY new highs - 822 to 31, pretty strong for an old market.
Int.term toppy highs in the McClellan Summation, Bullish per cent and Market Vane (72).
Bullish signs were the Public stepping up versus Specialist shorts, and the ETF inflows roared back in. Here are the numbers:

Mktsentiment. 2/9/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12580...........12653...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2459............2502............1114
S&P500…….. 1438............1430............776

CBOE Equity put/call .61............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 11.1.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. n/a...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-7...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 888...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..52.2...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 22.2 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear …….46.2/30.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 72......... 73..............24

Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………32.2/38.7
Bullish%- ………78...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

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