Monday, April 24, 2006


Just when you think this tired old Bull market has finally rolled over because of its overdue length, semi-annual seasonality, IRS and IRA contributions, and overbought conditions, we get a big 200-point spurt that reignites it. Could it be the oil rich foreigners are buying us out via equities, global real estate, etc.? Is Dubai really buying Daimler/Chrysler? It surely cannot be the locals, who are ponying up for gas and the trucked-in products that rely on it, while we get higher borrowing rates - going from 1% to 5%.
NYSE Advance/Declines zoom to 2:1 for the week bringing the oversold McClellan Oscillator back to the safe zero line at -2. Those perspicacious AAII people go Bearish on us - inverting the Bull/Bear ratio by 41 to 34, a sure Bullish import. The Bulls in the Rydex Nova/Ursa ratio are evaporating, as it moves to another recent low of 15.
On the flip side, however, we have the Panic/Euphoria Index hitting a new high of -0.19, well above water in the complacent area, and Public vs Specialists are backing away from shorting by a big % move, from 5.68 to 4.44.
So we still have no dominant signal as we stay in the upward biased Trading Range.

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