Monday, April 10, 2006


Just like George W., the market is "Staying The Course" in an upward sliding Trading Range. Unsure if investors are frozen in panic or bored to complacency, the Sentiment Indicators are carved in stone.Reflecting 0 change in the Nasdaq last week and 1 point in the SPX, nothing is giving any signal of change, outside of an ugly Advance/Decline reversal, causing the McClellan Oscillator to bounce down near the -50 range, closing the week at -36.
On the negative side, the Panic/Euphoria once again popped its head above water (-0.30) at the -0.29 level - far from the Euphoria of +.60 since its recent revision. So anything above -0.3 can be hazardous, as with last August's extended decline.
For the last 5 months I have been testing both the SPX-mini and SPX Commitment of Traders for some sign of a "Tell", but have found nothing so far in this lackadaisical market. Using the change and cumulative numbers, all I found was that the SPX had a better correlation to a DJIA that rose 238 points from Christmas to now. Otherwise all were coincident, choppy reversals.
Newsletter surveys are showing a widening spread of more complacent bulls and fewer bears - not a happy sign.

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