Monday, February 6, 2006


Punxsutawney Phil seems to be saying "No Bull Market for a few more weeks" as most Sentiment Indicators just regress to the mean, backing off of the Bearish signals cast recently, resulting in the January-end profit-taking. The current 3-month Trading Range shows little intention of climbing higher, even in this friendly semi-annual timeframe.
Whether this CAUSE consolidation is a Re-Accumulation (pointing higher) or Distribution (forecasting lower) is not evident by either the Bullish per cent (still in a toppy area) or the McClellan Summation, which almost always descends after peaking at its current level. An occasional hiccup does occur about as frequently as a 3-star movie on the Lifetime Channel.
There were a couple of quixotic statistics, however, last week: the AAII Bull/Bear postcard numbers have been jumping wildly lately, actually inverting (Bullish) before last week's selloff; and during said selloff, the weekly NYSE new high/new low figures were 602 vs. 84, respectively. One other change - the IBD Mutual Fund Cash dropped to a new recent low of 4.4% going back to December.
Last November the McClellans called for a cycle low in February - I cetainly hope they are right!

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