Monday, January 30, 2006


So goes the year, as the saying goes; helped, of course, by the fact that as in the Heisenberg Principle, an UP January is INCLUDED in that year. Still, with 1 day to go, the DJIA is up 200 points from the 2005 close on outstanding breadth going back to October.
Unfortunately we have been making lower lows since December - a Bearish Megaphone formation. Although we have a diverse mix of Sentiment Indicators, the outlook appears to intimate short term upthrust with clouds overhanging.
First, the good news this week, for Bulls: the AAII Bull/Bear survey ratio inverted again, with Bears at 33%, Bulls at 30. This worked OK last January 6 (for a week) but better on Oct.14 when this whole Bull got going. The problem seems to be the whipsawing in this number - Bulls from 29 to 59 to 30 this month. Also positive is the NYSE Specialist to Public shorting, near its high at 5.47.
Longer term Bearish consists of a 198 ISEE call/put ratio and 72% of stocks on BUY signals (Bullish per cent), and the McClellan Summation at 731, a toppy, overbought area. All the rest seem to be in a benign reversion to the mean as we await a new Fed Head and Bush's SOTU.

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