Monday, April 17, 2017


One day after Easter (and one day before the IRS comes calling for $$), stocks seem to have risen from the dead. After the S&P 500 hitting the 2400 mark on March 1, it fell gradually until today - hopefully the beginning of another cyclical rally.
Although the market is way overdue for a correction, a secular Bear doesn't seem to be in the offing. Since 1950, per Barron's item, no Recession has occurred without an Inverted Yield Curve in the Treasuries - 2-year yield ABOVE the 10-year. And Bear markets usually coincide with the R-word, which has occurred at least once in every decade for nearly a Century or more.
As for sentiment/breadth, notable exceptions include TIPs hitting the 115 mark; the VIX hitting almost 16 last week. The CBOE put/call ratio leapt to 77 from 64, a Bullish sign of fear.
See below:
Date   4/14/2017 4/7/2017
Indices: DJIA  20453 20656
  NAZ  5805 5877
SPX  2329 2355
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.6*/3.0 9.3/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.2 2.21
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  77 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.9 12.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 52 52.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1300/1768 1608/1478
Weekly Net: -468 130
     Cumulative: 175028 175496
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 211/47 225/67
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 156/119 223/135
McClellan  Oscillator -16 14
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 456 405
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.3 55.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 18.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29 28.3
Bear  37.4 39.6
US$-WSJ 100.6 101.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (12.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B (4.1B) (6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  528B FEB.:
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.2 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.21 1.29
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.2 114.6

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