Despite the FBI fakeout (against all previous custom in the
last 60 days before election) which caused the worst time decline in stocks - 9
days - since 1980, today's super rally assumes that Hillary will win the office
tomorrow ( when incumbents remain, stocks rise).
The rally was not a surprise to a couple Sentiment
Indicators: the CBOE put/call ratio hit 80 (first time in awhile), and the
McClellan Oscillator hit minus 60 (below my -50 Buy signal). Bonds also spiked
up.Strictly short term, however.
To balance out the Bear side, the Delta MSI Index ( stocks
on buy signals, like Bullish%) at 36%, is in Bear area, as the B% dropped to
50. Margin Interest is near a record, due to low rates; finally, for the first
time since Feb.'s selloff, the NYSE New Highs to Lows turned Negative as with
the A/D line, and Volume was heavy for the ugly week.
Here are the numbers:
|
Date
|
|
11/4/2016
|
10/28/2016
|
|
Indices:
|
DJIA
|
17888
|
18161
|
|
|
NAZ
|
5046
|
5190
|
|
|
SPX
|
2085
|
2126
|
|
WklyVolume
(Bshs).
|
naz/ny….
|
9.7/4.9
|
8.6/4.5
|
|
Specul.Ratio
hi=bullish
|
1.98
|
1.91
|
|
|
Sentiment:
|
put/call-CBOE
|
80
|
66
|
|
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8
|
22.5
|
16.2
|
|
|
DeltaMSI-50%
|
MAC
crossover
|
36%
|
45%
|
|
Advance/Dec-NYSE..
|
726/2403
|
887/2252
|
|
|
Weekly
Net:
|
|
-1677
|
-1365
|
|
Cumulative:
|
167921
|
169598
|
|
|
Weekly
|
NYSE
hi/low…
|
96/191
|
226/128
|
|
New
Hi's/Low's
|
Nasdaq
h/l
|
134/415
|
239/257
|
|
McClellan
|
Oscillator
|
-60
|
-45
|
|
McClellanSum
|
.+750/-1000
|
-277
|
26
|
|
Newsletter
|
Inv.Intel
-Bull
|
41.7
|
47.1
|
|
Surveys-Tues
|
Bear:-5yrs
|
24.3
|
23.1
|
|
Wed.
|
AAII -Bull
|
23
|
24.8
|
|
|
Bear
|
34.3
|
34.1
|
|
US$-WSJ
|
|
96.9
|
98.3
|
|
3-box
rev
|
Bullish%-
|
50
|
66
|
|
|
Fund Flows
|
WeekLate
|
WeekLate
|
|
MMF
flows
|
Change
in $B
|
26.2B
|
16.1B
|
|
MargDebt-
top (300M)
|
monthly
|
|
501B
|
|
10-yr
Tsy yield
|
hi=
stock buying
|
1.78%
|
1.85%
|
|
2-yr
Tsy Yield: Inflation
|
0.79%
|
0.86%
|
|
|
TIP (ETF)
|
Inflation
|
115.9
|
116
|
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