BLACK FRIDAY MATTERS

Making America Great again - record sales from retail stores last week, especially electronics (gamers?). The downside to technology cutting costs (and employment) from factories to farms, is (just like outsourced workers) that they do not CONSUME !! If we bring back jobs to U S, some things may cost more, but workers will be spending $$ that they earn here.
Another record set last week - back-to-back new highs in all four major stock markets - something that has not happened since....December 31, 1999 " A Year That Will Go Down..."
Another sodden fact: from Jason Trennert on Wealthtrack - 50% of the national Debt, which is now HUGE, will rollover within three years, just as rates are starting to rise!!
There has never been a year after a two-term President that a Recession has NOT occurred.

Sentiment Indicators are all Bullish, but getting extended - Breadth and Sentiment.
The Trend is your Friend Until it Bends at the End!!

Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date		11/25/2016	11/18/2016
Indices:	DJIA	19152nh	18868
	NAZ	5398	5321
	SPX	2213	2181
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	6.0/3.0*	10.4/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2	2.12
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.3	12.9
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	64%	58%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2454/662	1982/1149
Weekly Net:		1792	833
Cumulative:		170972	169180
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	451/69	450/355
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	628/84	680/135
McClellan	Oscillator	59	22
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	34	-182
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	55.9	51
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	21.6	23.5
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	49.9	46.7
	Bear	22.1	26.6
US$-WSJ		101.5	101.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	63	61
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	23.2B
MMF flows	Change in $B	18.8B	3.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	501B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.36%	2.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.12%	1.07%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.1	112.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BLACK FRIDAY MATTERS

1980 (Reagan) LIKE 2017 (Trump)?

Not exactly, says Barron's
Market Value (CAP) to GDP: 40%    196%
Bond Yields 14%   2%
Debt to GDP  135%    251%
Protectionism: Tear Down that Wall   Build a Wall

With Bond yields jumping (at least short term) $$ are coming out of Bond Funds into stocks. Sentiment Indicators regression into quietude - VIX, newsletters, stocks on BUY signals. and Breadth back positive during the rally,
Here are the numbers:

Date		11/18/2016	11/11/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18868	18847
	NAZ	5321	5237
	SPX	2181	2164
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	10.4/4.9	11.6/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.12	1.97
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	60	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.9	14.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	58%	39%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1982/1149	1781/1355
Weekly Net:		833	426
Cumulative:		169180	168347
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	450/355	394/331
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	680/135	530/271
McClellan	Oscillator	22	4
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-182	-299
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	51	Nov.8-42.9
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	23.5	25.7
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	46.7	Nov.9-38
	Bear	26.6	29.3
US$-WSJ		101.3	99
3-box rev	Bullish%-	61	57
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(6.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	3.3B	5.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.36%	2.15%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		1.07%	0.92%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	112.2	114.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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1980 (Reagan) LIKE 2017 (Trump)?

BACK IN THE BLACK

Markets hit the ground running after election - (both ways), and Sentiment Indicators also jumped. Volume hit 11.6B on the Naz (Nasdaq), 5.9B on the NY; New Highs/Lows went positive again, and Treasury yields jumped up.
Also Bullish was a lowering of put/call ratio, TIP (Inflation ETF), and  VIX (Volatility).
Newsletters come out early in the week, so were not  a factor of the Election.
Here are the numbers:

Date		11/11/2016	11/4/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18847	17888
	NAZ	5237	5046
	SPX	2164	2085
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	11.6/5.9	9.7/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.97	1.98
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	80
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		14.2	22.5
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	39%	36%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1781/1355	726/2403
Weekly Net:		426	-1677
Cumulative:		168347	167921
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	394/331	96/191
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	530/271	134/415
McClellan	Oscillator	4	-60
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-299	-277
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	Nov.8-42.9	41.7
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	25.7	24.3
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	Nov.9-38	23
	Bear	29.3	34.3
US$-WSJ		99	96.9
3-box rev	Bullish%-	57	50
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	(5.9B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	5.9B	26.2B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	2.15%	1.78%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.92%	0.79%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.3	115.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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BACK IN THE BLACK

HILLARALLY (Nov.7, 2016):

Despite the FBI fakeout (against all previous custom in the last 60 days before election) which caused the worst time decline in stocks - 9 days - since 1980, today's super rally assumes that Hillary will win the office tomorrow ( when incumbents remain, stocks rise).

The rally was not a surprise to a couple Sentiment Indicators: the CBOE put/call ratio hit 80 (first time in awhile), and the McClellan Oscillator hit minus 60 (below my -50 Buy signal). Bonds also spiked up.Strictly short term, however.

To balance out the Bear side, the Delta MSI Index ( stocks on buy signals, like Bullish%) at 36%, is in Bear area, as the B% dropped to 50. Margin Interest is near a record, due to low rates; finally, for the first time since Feb.'s selloff, the NYSE New Highs to Lows turned Negative as with the A/D line, and Volume was heavy for the ugly week.

Here are the numbers:

Date		11/4/2016	10/28/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17888	18161
	NAZ	5046	5190
	SPX	2085	2126
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	9.7/4.9	8.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.98	1.91
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	80	66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		22.5	16.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	36%	45%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		726/2403	887/2252
Weekly Net:		-1677	-1365
Cumulative:		167921	169598
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	96/191	226/128
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	134/415	239/257
McClellan	Oscillator	-60	-45
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	-277	26
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	41.7	47.1
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	24.3	23.1
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	23	24.8
	Bear	34.3	34.1
US$-WSJ		96.9	98.3
3-box rev	Bullish%-	50	66
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	WeekLate	WeekLate
MMF flows	Change in $B	26.2B	16.1B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		501B
10-yr Tsy yield	hi= stock buying	1.78%	1.85%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.79%	0.86%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	115.9	116

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

HILLARALLY (Nov.7, 2016):