Monday, July 18, 2016

Till Debt Do Us Part

No one, including our Fed, seems to be concerned about the massive Debt that the country - gov't, household- even global- is increasing. This cannot end well, whether now or (worse) later. Even reliable cycles - 7 to 8  year ( count from at least 1966), or the destructive 80-year (1930s) portend disaster. Debt to GDP (production) has gone from 55% in 2000 to 110% now (a double!!).

Record low interest rates usually indicate a bad Economy, but the Stock Market roars on!
The wrong Sectors - defensive - are leading the market - Util, Finance, Health, Staples. Quarterly earnings are down for the 5th Q. 18 of the last 19 Recessions have seen the Fed tighten in some manner; they also seem to occur @ the zero year of a decade.

But Breadth is incredibly strong recently - for only the third week in 2016 (since Feb.) mutual equity funds showed Inflows, only .3B - of course ETFs have gained more this year. NYSE new highs to lows were --- 659 to 11; stocks on BUY signals are high.
For the second month in a row (third this year) Insider Selling is huge (Bearish). Each time, including also last Nov., the market sold off.

Here are the numbers:

Date>   7/15/2016 7/8/2016
Indices: DJIA  18516 18146
  NAZ  5029 4956
SPX  2161 2129
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.4/4.3 7.1/3.8 *
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.95 1.87
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12.7 13.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 67% 55%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2158/984 2073/1067
Weekly Net: 1174 1006
     Cumulative: 170845nh 169671nh
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 659/11 564/62
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 387/70 242/116
McClellan  Oscillator 33 49
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1152 914
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 52.5 47.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 24.7 24.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  36.9 31.1
Bear  24.4 26.7
US$-WSJ 96.7 96.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 59
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate .3B
MMF flows Change in $B (2B) (17.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.55% 1.36%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.67% 0.60%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.3 117.5

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