Monday, June 13, 2016

Internet of Things

It has been my contention that at some point the exploding Internet inventions, as well as the San Francisco population will end in a Future Shock spiral (at least a course correction). Either a major earthquake in S.F., or, as Barron's points out this week, technology is getting so complex that many cannot understand or apply the myriad startups - especially when the top FANG companies are so competitive with their proprietary findings as to not become universal.

Another danger, of course, is the global NIRP which is affecting the U.S. interest rates, as foreigners buy record amounts of Treasuries - how will pensions, Social Security retirement accounts meet their 7.5% necessary profit performance in a negative world, mandating at least some Treasuries in their investment portfolios? But the stock market rolls on!!!

A Barron's editorial finds that over the past 50 years, the stock market in 20-year slices, has always gained 8 to 12%. And Tom Bowley of relates that stocks bought between the 27th of the month and the 6th of the next shows 100% of the gains!! BTW , those of us GGU alums will recognize Gatis Roze as a regular contributor...

Despite recent weakness, most Sentiment Indicators, just like the indices, are near recent Bullish levels - NYSE H/Los were 513 to 37.

Here are the numbers:
Date>   6/10/2016 6/3/2016
Indices: DJIA  17865 17807
  NAZ  4894 4942
SPX  2096 2099
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.5/4.3 7.3/4.3*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.98 1.7
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 60
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17 13.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 74% 70%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1576/1589 2167/1011
Weekly Net: -13 1156
     Cumulative: 168313 168326
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 513/37 368/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 255/108 202/79
McClellan  Oscillator -13 30
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 990 843
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.3 45.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 23.8 23.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.8 30.2
Bear  27.8 29.1
US$-WSJ 94.7 94
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (5.7B) 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  456B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.64% 1.70%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.78%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.8 115.1

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