Monday, February 8, 2016


After all the weeks of high-testosterone hype in the Greater Bay Area, the game itself was pretty boring - although the better team won!!. Record number of 3 and Outs - MVP should go to the kicker!
Thanks to strong defenses, Peyton Manning looked more like Bradley Manning, and Cam the Avatar looked like a deer in the headlights. Half time was much better to watch.

Back to the Dow(n) Jones. DIA and SPX down 14% from their 2015 highs (where's the FED?).
For weeks now I've been touting the TVIX as a hedge (a 3X VIX ETF that goes up when stocks drop) . It has doubled from 6 to 12 just this year ($6 to 12); in last Sept.'s market drop it went to $20!! (No guarantees). Then the VIX went above 50 (now at 28).
Another triple-strength ETF I've held thru thick and thicker, is the NUGT - 3X the GDX gold miners. That has gone from @$20 this year to $48, and was $150 last May on a Gold Spike. Volatility in the options (IV) is huge, so you should sell them not buy them (sell puts, or covered calls, both of which I've done).

Another extreme recently - the 2-year Treas. note went from  a recent high yield of 1.06% to today's 0.66% in a rush to safety. Last week the CBOE put/call was high at 78 and the Bull/Bear surveys inverted to Bearish (ON the market), but that did not help stocks today. Nasdaq New Lows were 10:1 last week.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 2/5/2016 1/29/2016
Indices: DJIA  16204 16466
  NAZ  4363 4613
SPX  1880 1940
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.2/5.6 10.8/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 1.83
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  78 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 23.4 20.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1072/2133 2370/845
Weekly Net: -1061 1525
     Cumulative: 157091 158152
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 197/378 96/253
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 54/464 45/389
McClellan  Oscillator 15 58
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -560 -725
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 34 29.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 38.1 35.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.6 29.8
Bear  34.7 40
US$-WSJ 97 99.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  38 33
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (4.2B) 13.8B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  DEC. 461B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.78%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.4 111.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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