Monday, August 10, 2015


In this silly season where the Big Players are on vacation, volatility abounds! After 7 straight down days this week starts with a huge rally, although  Volume is not really confirming it as the large Volume last week confirmed the downside. Also Bearish was the recent Breadth (advance/declines, new lows/highs) and technical downtrend. MMF (money market flows have been huge the past two weeks, just as they were a month ago at this time, when the DJIA fell off its 18k high.

Although most Sentiment Indicators last week were Frozen!, the leap in CBOE put/call ratio bode for a pop today, as did the McClellan Oscillator; also the Bullish % - stocks on a BUY signal- is at the October 2014 (Crash) low, which ended in a large uptrend! Longer term, market veteran Laszlo Birinyi came on TV to predict a 3000 S&P 500 in two years!! That is about 50% higher than now (2100) - a few more days such as today will get there.

Speaking of vacation - I shall be enjoying the beachfront near San Luis Obispo next week - so no commentary. Here are last week's numbers:

Date> 8/7/2015 7/31/2015
Indices: DJIA  17373 17689
  NAZ  5043 5128
SPX  2077 2103
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/4.4 9.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.25 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  78 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.4 12
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1138/2099 2102/1135
Weekly Net: -961 967
     Cumulative: 162261 163222
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 215/555 182/600
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 246/427 172/440
McClellan  Oscillator -10 18
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -338 -338
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 42.2 43.3
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  24.3 21.1
Bear  31.7 40.7
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 7k/(17k) 7K/(13K)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (15K) (15K)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (242k) (244K)
US$-WSJ 88.8 n/a
CEOinsider selling .17:1 n/a
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s
3-box rev Bullish%-  51 52
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekDelay (5.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 21.3B UNCH
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 505B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B JUNE: 1250/514/314
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.67%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.1 112.6

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