Monday, August 11, 2014


Thanks to a surprising huge rally Friday, the week came up positive for most markets, despite the worst retracement in months - hopefully that was enough of a respite. Technicians, on the other hand, require a filter of more time (3-4 days" closes beyond a technical break), etc. to resume trend.

With August recently being a weak market month, and Sept.-Oct. even moreso, it would seem advisable to employ hedges on existing portfolios throughout this period, until the election. For more, see:

The resumption of uptrend also  quieted down Sentiment Indicators, including the VIX, which jumped on the downturn.
MMF (money market flows) reversed from outflows the week before to inflows. AAII  Bears dominated for a change, and the McClellan Summation (of the Oscillator) is nearing the zero line - for what that is worth. Just as the SPX bounced up off the 1900 mark after failing to reach the 2000 barrier.
Here are the numbers for last week:

Date> 8/8/2014 8/1/2014
Indices: DJIA  16553 16493
  NAZ  4370 4352
SPX  1931 1925
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 8.9/3.4 9.9/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.6 2.8
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.8 17
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1987/1239 484/2772
Weekly Net: 750 -2288
     Cumulative: 162220 161470
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 106/196 260/191
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 94/253 149/254
McClellan  Oscillator -20 -89
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 11 287
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50.5 55.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.1 16.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.9 31.1
Bear  38.2 31.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k (2)/5 .3/5
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (132k) (149k)
CEOinsider selling 22:1 22:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 150:30 175:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 74
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (8.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 12.8B (8.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1116/440/274
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45% 0.48%

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