Monday, March 3, 2014

PC: Political Correc-tion

What a Revolting World! As a Contrarian it was interesting for me to see that the takeaway from the media (Barron's) this weekend was that the U.S. stock market would soar due to a global flight to safety, and that gold would tank. (DJIA down over 200 points on Monday, gold up $30). In Barron's Other Voices column, Walter Weil, a retired hedgehog, noted the long term failure of the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Indicator to predict the market a year later! However, what he failed to observe was that immediately following each signal, the market did decline short term - not a year later.

Although markets have been hitting new highs, not all Sentiment Indicators are doing the same: the NASD to NY is quite high, but not RECORD; the same with newsletter surveys, put/call, and both McClellan charts.

Records are occurring now in Margin debt; Barron's case for over bought Gold is born out by Commercial Traders, now at a Record 117k short contracts. For more commentary and this week's meetups, please see:

Here are the Sentiment numbers for last 2 weeks:

Date> 2/28/2014 2/21/2014
Indices: DJIA  16321 16103
NAZ  4308nh 4263
SPX  1859nh 1836
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 10.9/3.7 7.9/2.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.95 2.72
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14 14.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1825/1192 1948/1247
Weekly Net: 633 701
     Cumulative: 157149nh 156516nh
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 457/63 353/52
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 446/50 368/47
McClellan  Oscillator 42 44
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 924 727
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 53.5 46.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 17.2 17.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 39.7 42.2
Bear  21.1 22.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 6k/(29k) 5k/(25k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (117k)* (97k)
CEOinsider selling 111:1 130:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 200:50 200:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  72 70
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 4.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 20B (49B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  451Bnh 445B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 987/377/248 1028/399/246
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.32%

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