Garrett Jones, who studied technicals under Robert Farrell at Merrill Lynch, gave a talk recently at San Francisco's Bloomberg office, predicting a Black Swan event. Based on his circa 40-year cycle work ( charts show selloffs from 1811, 1851, 1891 1930, and 1974 ). Garrett expects a large decline sometime in July - with today being the 22nd.
Since 1900, there have been no less than one and no more than two Bear markets per decade, including the last decade (2001, 2008). Four years into the current one, we have barely had more than a 15% correction - 2010 and 2011 - in the SPX. Raymond James' Jeff Saut states that although the recent breadth ( Advances vs. Declines) showed a 17% decline, the market only just corrected 7% - meaning we have more to go. Europeans Marc Faber and Felix Zulauf see 20-30% declines in U.S markets.
Most Sentiment Indicators are coming of extremes: MMF Inflows increased almost $13B last week; while Equity flows finally gained slightly, as did ETF Inflows. Bullish %, a toppy indicator, hit 81 and the Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio ran to 52%, with Bears under 20%.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 7/19/2013 | 7/12/2013 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 15543 | 15464 |
| NAZ | 3587 | 3600 | |
| SPX | 1692 | 1680 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | |||
| NASD/NYSE | 8.0/3.4 | 7.9/3.7 | |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.35 | 2.14 | |
| nasd/nyse | |||
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 56 | 61 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 12.5 | 13.8 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2029/1141 | 2523/645 | |
| Weekly Net: | 888 | 1878 | |
| Cumulative: | 152600 | 151712 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low | 586/61 | 551/119 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 688/47 | 728/42 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 46 | 59 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 429 | 182 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull:tues | 52.1 | 46.9 |
| Surveys | Bear:-5yrs | 19.8 | 22.9 |
| AAII -Bull :wed. | 47.7 | 48.9 | |
| Bear | 21.3 | 18.3 | |
| COT:Change w/w | large/small (net)k | 12/4 | 13/3 |
| CEOinsider | selling | 76:1 | 106:1 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 81 | 79 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | 1weeklag | 4.5B |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 8.5B | 12.8B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | ||
| ETF:Eqty/ | Int'l/Bond | ||
| Assets in | Billion$$ . | ||
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.30% | 0.34% | |
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