Monday, April 29, 2013


The table below shows the weekly Sentiment Indicator numbers compared to the previous week. Multi-year highs and lows can be found under: Older Posts.
 For commentary on these, please go to:
and click on BLUE title-

Although the S&P 500 is making an all-time high today, breaching the recent weekly one of 1588 and reaching for 1600, there are a couple cautionary Sentiment signals out there for the intermediate term:

* The latest monthly reading of Margin Interest is $1B away from its all-time high in July of '07 at $380B.
* Although Charles Biderman of TrimTabs stated the largest inflows of mutual fund $$ in Q! since 2004, the ETF flows (also monthly) dropped precipitously from Feb. to Mar., in equity, int'l and bonds: from 13% to 18% and 18% respectively. 

Survey sentiment is mixed with broker newsletters (I.I.) showing below 20% Bears, but the AAII showing just under 40%, down from two weeks near 50% - they hit 70% in March of '09, the start of the current Bull phase.

Here are the numbers:

4/26/2013 4/19/2013
Indices: DJIA  14712 14547
NAZ  3279 3206

SPX  1582 1555
WklyVolume (Bshs).

NASD/NYSE 8.6/3.4 8.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.53 2.00

Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 76
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.6 15.0
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2375/783 920/2258
Weekly Net:
1592 -1338
     Cumulative: 150810 149218
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 570/75 293/146
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 330/105 163/158
McClellan  Oscillator 18 -15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 724 629
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 44.3 47.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 19.6 20.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.3 26.8

Bear  38.8 48.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 4/13 1/21
CEOinsider selling 19:1 14:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  77 75
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1weeklag 1.7B
MMF flows Change in $B (1.9B) (27.5B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  380B
ETF:Eqty/ Int'l/Bond 704/286/202
Assets in  Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.22% 0.23%

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