EASTER WINDOW DRESSING

The caution light remains on as the market cannot break through its previous highs, especially the SPX. Inflation adjusted, the DJIA should have to rise above 15,651.

Here are the Sentiment numbers - for comment, please click on:

http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

Date>		3/22/2013	3/15/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14512	14514
	NAZ	3245	3249
	SPX	1556	1560
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.1/3.4	8.7/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.38	2.02
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	66	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.6	11.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1665/1509	1750/1430
Weekly Net:		156	320
Cumulative:		149498	149342
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	579/102	718/93
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	351/50	484/52
McClellan	Oscillator	-7	6
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	954	1009
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	47.4	50
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.6	18.8
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	38.9	45.4
	Bear	33.3	32
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	6/18	19/(5)
CEOinsider	selling	58:1	44:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	84
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	.8B
MMF flows	Change in $B	(26.5B)	5.3B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.26%	0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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EASTER WINDOW DRESSING

MARCH MADNESS

Friday was the first down Friday of 2013 - according to Jeff Hirsch ( of the legendary Stock Traders' Almanac) markets tend to sell off after St. Patty's Day, especially when they fall on  a Sunday. Part of the rationale is that people are amassing money to pay their Income Tax next month; we saw in the previous week a huge selling of MMFunds, but last week it again reversed to adding $5B to money markets.
CEO Insider Selling was over $1M last week, reaching 44:1 over Buyers.

Here are the numbers - more commentary on them can be found at my Examiner.com column:
http://www.examiner.com/stock-market-in-san-francisco/brent-leonard

 

Date>		3/15/2013	3/8/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14514	14397
	NAZ	3249	3244
	SPX	1560	1551
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.7/4.3	8.6/3.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.02	2.46
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		11.3	12.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1750/1430	2356/839
Weekly Net:		320	1517
Cumulative:		149342	149022
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	718/93	734/100
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	484/52	476/80
McClellan	Oscillator	6	27
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1009	951
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	50	44.2
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	18.8	21.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	45.4	31.1
	Bear	32	38.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	19/(5)	17/4
CEOinsider	selling	44:1	51:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	84	82
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(.6B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	5.3B	(16.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		364B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond		810/352/243
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.26%	0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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MARCH MADNESS

ROSY SCENARIO

Every day the market just keeps incrementally rising higher without any correction - Tick, Tick, Tick.
Everyone is Bullish - everything is going right - even Congress.
Here are the Sentiment numbers for last week - standouts include a huge rise in Margin Interest to dangerous levels, and Insider Selling is once again extreme over Buyers.

 

Date>		3/8/2013	3/1/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14397	14089
	NAZ	3244	3169
	SPX	1551	1518
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		8.6/3.5	9.2/4.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.46	2.30
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	61	70
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		12.6	15.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2356/839	1667/1492
Weekly Net:		1517	175
Cumulative:		149022	147505
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	734/100	447/110
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	476/80	297/88
McClellan	Oscillator	27	-3
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	951	873
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	44.2	46.3
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.1	21.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	31.1	28.4
	Bear	38.5	36.6
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	17/4	10/4
CEOinsider	selling	51:1	29:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	82	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	(1.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(16.7B)	5.77B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	364B	330B
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	810/352/243	764/329/243
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.26%	0.24%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ROSY SCENARIO

FED-US EX MACHINA

Despite many Sentiment Indicators near dangerous highs, the markets seem bouyant as everyone - from Fundamentalist Warren Buffett to Technician Ralph Acampora ( who recently resurfaced) is wildly Bullish on stocks. Unanimity is usually wrong, and, as any technician will tell you, the only sure thing about an "average" is that the current momentum won't follow exactly the average - unless it's a "moving" one. Even the January Barometer predicts an up market when January is both UP and UP over 5% - at least until the Fall months, when it declines somewhat.

 Last week the notable increases were: CBOE put/call ratio to 70 (Bullish), AAII Bears a few percentage points while the Bulls dropped from 42% to 28%!  Another major move was MM funds switching from a negative $23B to a positive inflow of almost $6B.

Here are the numbers:

Date>		3/1/2013	2/22/2013
Indices:	DJIA	14089	14000
	NAZ	3169	3161
	SPX	1518	1515
WklyVolume (Bshs).
NASD/NYSE		9.2/4.0	7.4/3.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		2.30	2.47
nasd/nyse
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	70	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.4	14.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1667/1492	1386/1767
Weekly Net:		175	-381
Cumulative:		147505	147330
Weekly	NYSE hi/low	447/110	576/82
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	297/88	405/74
McClellan	Oscillator	-3	-18
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	873	966
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull:tues	46.3	48.4
Surveys	Bear:-5yrs	21.1	22.1
	AAII  -Bull :wed.	28.4	41.8
	Bear	36.6	32.5
COT:Change w/w	large/small (net)k	10/4	17/19
CEOinsider	selling	29:1	58:1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	81
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	1weeklag	1B
MMF flows	Change in $B	5.77B	(23.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	330B	Dec.
ETF:Eqty/	Int'l/Bond	764/329/243	Dec.
Assets in	Billion$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.24%	0.26%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader

FED-US EX MACHINA