Sunday, September 9, 2012


Summer's over and the crazy season starts, especially in an election year. The Election Year model for September is off to a raging start - according to it, October will let us know who is to win the next Presidency.
The Indicators have settled back to the middle again, not enough for a reversal yet, but Caution. The Inv. Intell. Bull/Bear survey is getting stretched, and the AAII one is exactly even. Breadth is strong, with the McClellan Oscillator approaching the +50 level (my sell signal) - it is now at +35.
Here are the numbers.

9/7/2012 8/31/2012
Indices: DJIA  13306 13090
  NAZ  3136 3066

SPX  1437 1406
WklyVolume (Bshs).  
NASD/NYSE   6.6/2.7 6.6/2.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.44 2.36
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.4 17.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2445/678 1693/1437
Weekly Net:
1767 256
     Cumulative: 141978 140211
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 520/58 323/61
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 293/86 163/87
McClellan  Oscillator 35 -5
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 616 558
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 51 48.9
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 33.1 34.7

Bear  33.1 32.6
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (2)/3 1/1.
CEOinsider selling 34:1 110:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (3.7B) 1 wk lag
MMF flows Change in $B (.8B) (2.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JULY: 277B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JULY: 702/264/226
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.23%    

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