Monday, May 21, 2012


After falling 1,000 points from its 22% runup high, the DJIA has corrected a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and nearly to the Pt. & Fig. maximum level.  This record decline (12 losing days in the past 14), the most since 1974, has created a much oversold condition. Judging from a strong Monday, after option expiry and the annular equinox, we should  see at least a bounce in the markets -possibly a summer rally.
The McClellan Oscillator hit a new multi-year low of -110 (surpassing -108), the AAII Bull/Bear ratio of postcard opinions of 23 to 46, with the Commitment of Traders on the S&P mimicking it. As I stated in my column ( - search Brent Leonard) the Declines outdid the Advances 10:1. a climactic amount on the strongest Volume in weeks. Finally, the CBOE Equity put/call ratio reached 89 -another recent high. Here are the numbers:

5/18/2012 5/11/2012
Indices: DJIA  12369 12820
NAZ  2778 2933

SPX  1295 1353
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 10.1/4.7 9.7/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.15 2.37
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  89 88
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 25.1 19.9

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 297/2906 1238/1937

Weekly Net: -2609 -699

     Cumulative: 129294 131903
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 90/259 191/144
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 92/330 163/223
McClellan  Oscillator -110 -50
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 -323 -50
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 39.4 38.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 22.3 20.4

AAII  -Bull :wed. 23.6 25.4

Bear  46 42.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 3/(15) 3/(6)
CEOinsider selling 13:1 30:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 1138 1138
3-box rev Bullish%-  52 59
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (2.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B (5.4B) 1.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ .
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.31% 0.31%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 5.47 5.4

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