Monday, November 14, 2011

NOW WE'RE GETTING NOWHERE:

The closing price of the S&P 500 on Dec.31 of 2010 was 1,257 - as of this morning, the SPX is again: 1,257, despite a volatile year. Something like 88 trading days have seen triple-digit swings YTD. Dividends anyone?
The last time the AAII Bull/Bear ratio was spread this wide (the Bears 20 points below the Bulls) was July 15 week. A week later the DJIA dropped 2,000 points. Two other favorite indicators of mine - the McClellan Oscillator and CBOE Equity put/call ratio - are also getting toppy; as is the Bullish %.
Tom McClellan has kindly offered to share with us (in the upcoming TSAA Review)  the correlation he showed on Bloomberg last week of the Euro$ Commitment of Traders vs. the SPX - offset 1 full year. His prediction is a bar bell UP for the first and last part of 2012 and sideways during the summer months.
Here  are the Sentiment numbers:


























































































Date>

10/28/2011 11/4/2011 11/11/2011 7Yr.HI LOW
Indices: DJIA 
12234 11983 12153 14093 6626
  NAZ 
2737 2686 2678 2861 1114

SPX 
1285 1253 1263 1561 683
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 5.5/10.4 5.3/10.0 4.4/9.2  
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.89 1.89 2.09 2.3 1.59
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 76 73 104.11/08 42
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 24.5 30.1 30 90 8.8

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2679/492 1023/2119 1558/1592  

Weekly Net: 2187 -1096 -34


     Cumulative: 125585 124489 124455 127929 71464
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 229/38 113/57 154/73 950 18
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l
153/98 87/139 89/159

McClellan  Oscillator
77 22 38 108-1/09 -100 -10/08
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000
546 653 747 1568-6/03 -1514
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 40 43.2 44.2 62.9-12/04 22.2-10/08
Surveys Bear:-5yrs
37.9 36.8 34.7 54.4-10/08 15.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 43 40.2 44.7 (12/10)63.3  

Bear 
25 29.6 24.6 70.3(3/09) 16.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 12/(10) 3/15. n/aHoliday  
CEOinsider selling
29:1 35:1 34:1 235:1 .2.1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 2153 1817 1840 11700 663
3-box rev Bullish%- 
77 74 72 88 2







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