Monday, August 1, 2011


For the first time in 6 years of posting Sentiment numbers, my template sabotaged me by repeating the numbers from the week before; some little worm in there did not update the template. Rest assured, the numbers this week (and for the previous week in the template) are correct ! I think!

Mistakes will happen. Look at the GDP predictions by the best and brightest Economisseds for the past several quarters; look at Barron's stock pickers, underperforming static INDICES! And according to Prof. Tetlock of UC Beserkely, out of 27,450  future predictions barely 50% were correct, with the most egregiously wrong being the most esteemed, such as Paul Ehrlich and Paul Krugman. Stuff happens.

Looking at a yearly chart, the previous times the VIX has spiked, as it did last week, a huge rally ensued. The A/D (advance/declines on the NYSE) were 1:10, which should be a selling climax. Ergo, the McClellan Oscillator sank to a minus 84, with -50 being my buy signal.Since I started keeping track of the COT, the commitment of large (smart money) traders went positive for the first time, barely. Small traders are still looking through rose-colored glasses.
Finally, money market Outflows were huge, as were equity fund flows yet again - ETF capital remains unchanged, although margin interest has lessened for the second month.

Here are the correct numbers:

MktSentiment Last WeekPrev. Week 5 Yr HI 5 Yr LOW
S&P 500:129213451561683
CBOE Eq. put/call: 676096-10/0846-1/03
McClellan Osc:(84)13108(123)
McClellan Sum:1654601568(1514)
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AAII Bull:
AAII Bear:
US Equity-1 week lagn/a(6.5B)
Money Market Flows(37.5B)(24.7B)

Baltic Dry Index:1278132511700663
Bullish %:
Insider Corporate Sellers:37:163:1235:12.4:1

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