It looks like Sell In May is back in favor, after many years reversing that trend - from worst to first and back again. Although many Sentiment Indicators have been warning of at least a Stop-Look-Listen Trading Range, which started in February, and ending in a MayDay "Upthrust after Distribution", current IOI's (Indicators of Interest) are as follows:
Although legal Insider Trading (of Key Employees) set a record high in Selling earlier this month, the previous record was at the start of the March '09 Bull Run.
Bullish "for" the market this week are the CBOE put/call ratio of 71, a negative 20 on the McClellan Oscillator, and MMF flows doing a huge flip-flop from $24B inflows to $12B outflows.Technically, most markets have pierced their 50-day MA, but are still stretched above the 200-day averages. Hopefully the correction will end there.
My newest Indicators are showing danger zones - NASD Volume vs. NYSE (speculation), and Commitment of Traders -large vs. small. Finally, the Bullish % fell 3 points (6% on a 2 pt. box Point & Figure chart), which is material enough to be a Sell signal.
| MktSentiment | Last Week | Prev. Week | 5 Yr HI | 5 Yr LOW |
| DJIA: | 12512 | 12595 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2803 | 2828 | 2861 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1333 | 1337 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 71 | 66 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 17.4 | 17.1 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | (20) | (14) | 108 | (123) |
| McClellan Sum: | 573 | 677 | 1568 | (1514) |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
InvestorsIntel.Bull: | n/a | n/a | 63 | 22.21 |
InvestorsIntel.Bear: | n/a | n/a | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII Bull: | 26.7 | 30.8 | n/a | n/a |
AAII Bear: | 41.3 | 35.5 | n/a | n/a |
| US Equity-1 week lag | n/a | (2.2B) | ||
| Money Market Flows | (12.4B) | 24B | ||
| Baltic Dry Index: | 1271 | 1306 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 74 | 77 | 89 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 28:1 | 43:1 | 235:1 | 2.4:1 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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