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Saturday, April 25, 2009

STAND AND DE-LEVER:

In another impotent gesture to bully up the confidence in banks and markets, the stress tests will be released next week. Nevertheless, the markets cannot seem to rise above important Resistance levels, despite the recent rally and impressive breadth.
The McClellan Summation is up to 789 with the Oscillator still above 50; Volume not impressive considering the low prices of top stocks. If they are the bargain that many talking heads are avowing, why are insiders selling to the record-breaking 56 to 1, after last week's 108 to 1?
The Baltic Dry Index, often a global economic signal, continues to rise again, but mutual flows are not exactly swelling.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 4/24/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8076………8131.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1694………1673…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 866……….. 869………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …70……….…57……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 36.8……. 33.9…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………56…………74……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…789……….595……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…39.1……….43.2……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 34.5……….34.1…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……31.8/38.6…..44.1/35.9….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……1897………1682…………11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…62………….66………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers. 56:1……….108:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows 1.2B……… .5B

ETF InflowsL……… 0………..(2.6B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 20, 2009

INSIDERS BUYERS' BOYCOTT:

Since the new administration has changed its economic strategy from "Holy S*** " to bullying up the economy and markets, with the help of the media, an unprecedented rally has Sprung up - so why aren't the corporate CEOs, et.al. buying up their stock recently? The ratio of Insider Sellers to Buyers has been at record lows - 2 and 3:1 a few weeks ago - why did it suddenly jump to 108:1 this week, with the few buyers jumping into healthcare stocks ( 1/3 the total of all sectors)?
Stephen Leuthold, a very savvy market veteran, says stocks are at the best valuation in his 45 years, calling for 1100 S&P500 this year. And technician Ned Davis says not to worry about going away in May.
Although Volume has finally picked up recently, it's nowhere near normal, considering the low prices that the Blue Chips are selling at.
Breadth-wise, both the McClellan Oscillator and Bullish Per Cent are near the top of their ranges, not surprising following the huge rally abetted by shortcovering and ETFs.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 4/17/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8131……….8083.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1673………1652…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 869………..856………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call ……57……….64……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 33.9…….36.5…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………74………….71……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…595………..295……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…43.2………..36……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 34.1………37.1…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……44.1/35.9…..35.7/44.3….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Market Vane - T-Bond..64………..63……………..91………….59

Baltic Dry Index ……1682……..1478…………11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…60………….53………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers. 108:1……..16:1…. ………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows .5B………….4B

ETF InflowsL……… (2.6B)… .4B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.



With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


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Monday, April 13, 2009

GS, OR GOV'T SACHS?:

In what I call CapEx , or "Capitol Expenditure" , TARP gives $170B to AIG, who gives $13B to Goldman Sachs, who pays off the gov't loan of $10B -Follow The Money!Meanwhile GS stock has almost tripled in the last 5 months.
Some warning clouds have suddenly appeared in the Sentiment area recently, despite the record 5-week rally, which may have overextended due to short-covering, lack of alternatives, and smokescreen success of the administration's plans. The Bullish %, or number of stocks on Buy signals in the SPX, hit 60 last week - previous times at that level were January, May '08, and July '07 -all saw declines; also the XLF (Financial ETF) is 26% above its 50-day MA, a pivotal level. Thomson/Reuters reports its 144 filing of insider selling/buying intentions which nearly tripled last week, from 6:1 to 16:1 - more spectacular was that without Healthcare sector buying (10M of the 14.6M) the ratio goes to 60:1!Markets are also at substantial Resistance areas, and earnings are due to come out now. It is unclear to me that while talking heads are predicting bottoms/recovery, unemployment rising with more layoffs ahead seems incongruous. Tax revenues from corporations are down 90% y/y, peronal income taxes down 25%.Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 4/10/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8083……….8017.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1652……….1621…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 856…………842………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……64………..67……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 36.5……39.7…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………71………….91……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…295………..103……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36…………..31……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 37.1………..38…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……35.7/44.3…..42.7/37.1….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..63……….67……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……1478……..1538…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…60………….53………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 16:1……….7:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows .4B…….…(103B)…
ETF InflowsL……… … .4B….. .3B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, April 6, 2009

IS THIS RALLY FAUX/REAL?:

The major markets have hit a well-defined Resistance level of 8200-8400 DJIA and 840 SPX and backed off recently to, as Dr. Pruden calls a Stop-Look-& Listen period, to see if there is enough demand (read Volume) to break up through this galaxy, including a 9-year declining tops Trendline @ the 8200 level.
Veteran analyst Phil Roth notes that although the rally has been driven almost entirely by Institutional Investors, their using ETFs would indicate they are not buying individual value stocks, rather playing an oversold, shortcovering rally prompted by the IMF and U.S. gov'ts recent monetary decisions.
Breadth and sentiment signs that we won't go much higher short term include the fact that the VIX refuses to fall much below 40 - intimating more Volatility ahead; the Advance/Decline McClellan Oscillator is at a very toppy level of 91 - 8 of the last 9 tops have led to a market decline, although with recent strength, that outlier is also the most recent; besides, the Summation Index just went up through the zero, also a positive.
The Bullish per cent has risen to a 53 level - recent toppy levels would range from 62-70% of S&P stocks on a Buy signal. Most other sentiment signals are rather tame.
Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 4/3/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8017……….7776.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1621……….1545…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 842……….. 815………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……67……….62……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 39.7…….41…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………91…………56……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…103………-176……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…31………….28.9……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 38…………43.3…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……42.7/37.1…..39.1/42.1….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..67……….66……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……1538………1678…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…53………….48………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 7:1…………6:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows …(103B)….(4.5B)…
ETF InflowsL……… … .3B……. 1B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark