Some warning clouds have suddenly appeared in the Sentiment area recently, despite the record 5-week rally, which may have overextended due to short-covering, lack of alternatives, and smokescreen success of the administration's plans. The Bullish %, or number of stocks on Buy signals in the SPX, hit 60 last week - previous times at that level were January, May '08, and July '07 -all saw declines; also the XLF (Financial ETF) is 26% above its 50-day MA, a pivotal level. Thomson/Reuters reports its 144 filing of insider selling/buying intentions which nearly tripled last week, from 6:1 to 16:1 - more spectacular was that without Healthcare sector buying (10M of the 14.6M) the ratio goes to 60:1!Markets are also at substantial Resistance areas, and earnings are due to come out now. It is unclear to me that while talking heads are predicting bottoms/recovery, unemployment rising with more layoffs ahead seems incongruous. Tax revenues from corporations are down 90% y/y, peronal income taxes down 25%.Here are the numbers:
MktSentiment. 4/10/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW
DJIA ………. 8083……….8017.………..14093............6626
Nasdaq………. 1652……….1621…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 856…………842………….1561………..683
CBOE Eq. put/call ……64………..67……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03
VIX ………. 36.5……39.7…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear
McClellan Osc………71………….91……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…295………..103……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36…………..31……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 37.1………..38…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……35.7/44.3…..42.7/37.1….…..18.9/70.3 n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..63……….67……………..91………….59
Baltic Dry Index ……1478……..1538…………11700…………………663
Bullish%- …….…60………….53………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corp sellers. 16:1……….7:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows .4B…….…(103B)…
ETF InflowsL……… … .4B….. .3B
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
No comments:
Post a Comment