Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different timeframes; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments,thanks to Haloscan, just click on "comments" and write away.

Contributors

Monday, May 04, 2009

SINKO DE MAYO?:

Even though Ned Davis Research says not to "Go Away in May", one must feel that a 30% runup in the DJIA and S&P 500 (40% in Russell and Emerging markets) feels a little dangerous, what with a 35% decline in Q1 Earnings and a GDP shortfall of 6.1%, following the 6.3% the quarter before.

Stocks have managed to run up through much of the recent previous Resistance, albeit on low Volume considering single-digit quality stocks which have doubled, should have given more of it. The Nasdaq composite and SPX have broken up through the "Ice" ( suggesting a fall back to retest the Ice), and the DJIA is just below an 8400 Resistance, in my view.
Sentiment Indicators have changed little since last week, with the exceptions of the McClellan Summation Index bumping up on 1,000; the Bullish per cent is in high ground at 67, and CEO Insider Selling is still huge, at over 50 to 1 (recent normal has been single-digit selling).
Here are actual numbers:

MktSentiment. 5/01/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8212………8076.………..14093............6626

Nasdaq………. 1719………1694…………2810.............1114

S&P500…….. 877…………866………….1561………..683

CBOE Eq. put/call …63………….70……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 35.3………36.8…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………43………….56……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull

McClelSum……….…968……….789……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08

Newsletter Surveys:

Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…36………….39.1……….…63 (12/04bear)...22.2-10/08bull

Bear:………… 37.2……….34.5…………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……36.1?43.6…31.8/38.6….…..18.9/70.3 n/a

Baltic Dry Index ……1806………1897…………11700…………………663

Bullish%- …….…67…………..62………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull

*Insider corp sellers. 51:1………..56:1………..108………….2.4:1 (11/08)

Mutual Fund Inflows (.25B)……1.2B

ETF InflowsL……… (.75B)……..0

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

posted by Brent Leonard | 11:34 AM