PICK-A-STOCK = WHACK-A-MOLE:

With the stock market averages exactly where they were 4 months ago, despite record Volatility, picking winners in stocks or sectors by technical momentum is like whack-a-mole - every time one pops its head up it gets smacked! One very profitable strategy has been to reverse any 1-day strong move the next day, although the 3-day up, down cycle seems to also work, unless it doesn't.
This sideways, intra-range action has resulted in a regressing to the mean of most indicators lately. Breadth was very strong last week, although New Lows to Highs were 16:1. Money flows out of mutual funds and ETFs were stagnant, although $26B was drained from Money Markets. CEO insider selling rose to higher levels.
Here are the data:
MktSentiment. 2/6/2009 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8280………8000.………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1591………1476…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 868………825………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call ……69……….73……..…96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 43……….44…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………30………….-23……………..108-1/09 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…127………..156……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…35.2…………34.8……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 36.3…………38.0……………..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
AAII-Bull/Bear ……24.6/44.0…….25.3/47.3…....……..n/a n/a
Market Vane - T-Bond..63…………70……………..91
Baltic Dry Index ……1642………..1070…………………………………663
Bullish%- …….…53…………..51……………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 11:1……13:1…. ………..97………….2.4:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows … (.25B)……..(.8B)…
ETF InflowsL……… 0………… .5B…
Money Market Inflows: (26B)………5B… ………144B (9/08)

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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PICK-A-STOCK = WHACK-A-MOLE: