Monday, November 24, 2008

STOCK MARKETS - WILD AND CRAZY GUYS:

These past few weeks have seen market moves not seen in a generation, if ever. The cyclical symmetry to the Great Depression becomes more obvious each day - even the dates: 1929-32, with an Echo bust in 1938 is repeated by 2000-02, 2008.
Although government bailout action trumps the Sentiment signals, aided by hedge fund liquidations and short-covering, several extremes appeared in the past few days:
Although we broke the recent Trading Range (it is possible that this current 10% rally is the common retest to the Support turned Resistance) , several of the indicators below foresaw the rally. New Highs to Lows on the NY and Nasdaq - 5 to 1700; a record 104 on the CBOE put/call ratio, exceeding the OEX ratio; the VIX touched 80 again; the Volume on the SDS (Ultrashort SPX etf) at record numbers, as was the insider buying to selling. Also, the SPX was as far below the 200MA as in 1932.
Finally, the McClellan charts were both oversold, and the Bullish per cent sank to 8.
Still, technicians, such as Mark Liebovit and Louise Yamada, would argue there is farther down to go. And Charles Biderman states that we are not seeing stock buybacks or insider buying so typical at bottoms - down 90% and 24% Y/Y in November.

Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 11/21/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8046……8497………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1384…..1516…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 800………873………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …… 92…..104nh…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 72.6……..66…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-64…………..-2 ……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1500………-1148.. ……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…30.9…………..31.9……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 43.6………….46.1…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03
Baltic Dry Index ……836………….838 829
AAII-Bull/Bear ………38.3/42.5….24.4/57.1………....……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-… 14.2……….15.7 … …….……22-10/08…………14.1
Bullish%- …….……8……………26………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers. 3.3:1….n/a…. ………..97………….3.3:1 (11/08)
Mutual Fund Inflows (3.3B)………(.2B)
ETF InflowsL……….6.8B………..2.8B……
Money Market Inflows: .42B……….23B… … ………144B

www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.

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