Monday, October 27, 2008

ZUGZWANG- "FORCED MOVE":

In chess, the optimal strategy is to put your opponent into a position in which they can only make one move each time, forcing them into checkmate. In today's markets, the combination of hedge fund and mutual fund redemptions, margin calls, mutual fund tax loss selling, 401k and pension withdrawals and shorting has driven most all the Sentiment Indicators to extremely oversold levels, yet, just as with oscillators, they can stay that way indefinitely.
One only hopes that with the end of the (ugliest) month, the election relief, year-end seasonality, and the DJIA approaching several multi-year support levels, we have seen a Selling Climax and the entry into a Wyckoff-type Trading Range.
For those interested in this, there appears to be only a few spaces left for next weekend's TSAA Annual Seminar on Wyckoff -www.tsaasf.org. -to register.

Some of these Indicator extremes include the VIX at record highs (actually touching 90), CBOE put/call ratios in the 80s; new highs to new lows at incredible 7 to 1000; Bullish percent at 8, after hitting a recent 2% of stocks on buy signals (probably inverse ETFs). Also at record levels - McClellan figures and Investors Intelligence Bears.
Also Bullish FOR the market - public vs. Specialist shorting is quite high and Insider Selling is very low. See below:

MktSentiment. 10/24/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 8378…………8852………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 1552…………1711…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 876………….940………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …83……..……..83…….…..96-10/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 79nh………….70nh…….…….79..-10/08bull….10.0-7/05 bear

McClellan Osc………-38…………..25……………..91 -5 /04 bear...(-100)-10/08bull
McClelSum……….…-1514nl…….-1500nl……..…....1568-6/03.......-1514-10/08
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…22.2nl……….22.4nl……….…63 (12/04bear)......22.2-10/08bull
Bear:………… 54.4nh……..52.9…..………… 54.4.10/08.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……38.7/38.7……40.9/39.8..……..n/a n/a
Public/NYSE Spec.-…22nh………14.1… …….……22-10/08…………14.1
Bullish%- ………8……………18………….…88 -2/04bear.....2-10/08bull
*Insider corporate sellers.4:1……..7:1 …. ………..97………….4-10/08
Mutual Fund Inflows 200M…….(14.2B)…
ETF InflowsL……….500M…….4.3B……
Money Market Inflows: .17B……..58B… ………144B

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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