Monday, August 4, 2008

WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN' GOIN' ON:

4 of the last 7 days have seen 170 pt. swings on the DJIA (daily closes), yet the Sentiment Indicators moved almost imperceptibly, just as the indices did from week's close to close. Some remain in oversold states, however, and the Money Market was the only noticable extreme - to a $9B Outflow for the first time in weeks.
From a Bollinger Band narrow quietude, this could be an harbinger of more volatility and a big move, one way or the other. As the credit situations continue towards implosion, the fickle, oversold market could just mount a summer rally, as this column predicted 2 days before the bottom -on July 14th.
For anyone who wants to get a handle on the total credit situation, I would recommend reading The Trillion Dollar Meltdown by Charles Morris. Normally I take notes on good books, such as The Demon Of Our Own Design, by Richard Bookstaber, and then synopsize these for the upcoming TSAA Review's book report (on tsaasf.org). The Morris book was so full of information I returned it to the library and went out and bought it - note taking would be impossible.
Also, to my e-mail alert subscribers I am attaching charts of Justin Mamis's Sentiment cycle as well as a chart on Consumer stress - the lowest since 1980!
Here are the Sentiment Numbers:
MktSentiment. 8/1/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 11326……….11370………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2310…………2310…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1260………….1257………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …75……………72……………..92-1/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 22.5…………22.9…….…….44.. 9/02 bu..10.0-7/05 br

McClellan Osc……….40…………37……………91-5/04 br...(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum……….…-767………..-967…………..1568-6/03.......-1187
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…30………….29.2……….…63 (12/04br)......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 50…………49.4…..………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……40/41.2……..35.8/44……..n/a n/a
IBD: Short Interest- 13.6……….13.5…………15.0………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…20.5………21.9nh…….….21.9bl…………..1.0br
Bullish%- …………44…………42…….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.11:1……20:1………..97………….4
Mutual Fund Inflows: (1.3B)
ETF Inflows: 4B
Money Market Inflows: (8.8B)

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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