THE BEAR AND THE BLACK SWAN:

It is times like these that make all the Sentiment work worth it. As much as I prefer to gather and record the data, leaving predictions to fools and deceivers, if we do not get a material rally out of these extreme oversold readings within days, I'm going to hang it up and go fishing. I do recommend using these indicators first as a cautionary tools, then as a speculative one until proven correct.
Here are some examples: the CBOE put/call is at 85 (still off the 95 multiyear high); the VIX at 27.5 is not quite breaking through the 30 level we saw in 4 previous rallies the past year; NYSE new lows are 40 to 1 (Nasdaq 20:1); the McClellan Oscillator is off its -50 buy signal of the past 3 weeks, but the Summation broke -1,000, a new low.
Not only are the AAII and Inv.Intell surveys inverted, with more Bears than Bulls, but extremely so - more than 30 and 20%, respectively. Legal insider selling is at a new low of 4:1 (with kids going away to college next month??); Bullish per cent could also be lower - 27 is a bit above the 19 low.
With $38B going into Money Market Funds last week, this could fuel a rally, as well as the foreign money that has been huge in redemptions - oil-exporting countries make $2.5T a year in revenues. As T Boone says, we're funding both sides of the War!
Finally, record short interest on the NYSE and IBD's ratio, as well as a spike in SDS volume last week (the S&P 500 double short ETF).
Here are the rest of the numbers:
MktSentiment. 7/11/2008 Prev. Week.....5Yr.HI......LOW

DJIA ………. 11100……….11288………..14093............7286
Nasdaq………. 2239…………2245…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1239…………1262………….1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …85……………77……………..92-1/08….....46-1/03

VIX ………. 27.5…………24.78…….…….44.. 9/02 bu..10.0-7/05 br

McClellan Osc……….-44…………-75……………91-5/04 br...(-81)-5/04bu
McClelSum……….…-1060……….-800…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…27.6………..31.9……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 47.3……….44.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……22.2/55.2……23.9/52.1……..n/a n/a
IBD: Short Interest- 14.1…………13.46…………15.0………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…18.4……….17…….….21bl…………..1.0br
Bullish%- ………….27………28…….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.4:1…….7:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Industrials (1/2 the total)
Most Sellers: Energy

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THE BEAR AND THE BLACK SWAN: