Monday, April 7, 2008

BULL ROAR:

Sentiment, liquidity - both home and abroad- shortcovering and many technicals (breadth) have turned around a Bear market, at least for now. Some Resistance does loom overhead (12,700-740 on the DJIA, 1405-30 on the SPX). Whenever bad news (such as WaMu, today) is ignored by the market, the bulls win.
Some of the Sentiment standout extremes last week include: NY Advance/Declines were positive for the first time in months, and Money Markets had outflows, also for the first time since the end of '07. The A/D pushed the McClellan Oscillator above 50, at 54, which along with the aforementioned Resistance, might slow down the upsurge.
Although the AAII Bull/Bear survey is still inverted, the Inv.Intell. and Market Vane are way complacent. Legal insider selling shot up to 15:1, albeit still low, with Healthcare leading the buyers and Energy leading the Sellers bigtime. Finally, speculative OTC Volume vs. NYSE is 163%, getting a bit toppy.
Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 4/04/2008 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12609……..12216………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2370……….2261…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1370……….1315…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …95………….76……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 22.4………..25.7…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 73………….70……………76(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………54………….0……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………-285…………-511…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…56.5……….36.7……….…12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 25.0……….41.1………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……36.7/39.4…..41.6/33.6……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…50………….48…………. 74br..............24bu
IBD: Short Interest- 8.74………. 9.73……………10.3………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.6………15.5……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………50/25…….50/25
Bullish%- …………52……….40……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers.15:1……9:1………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Healthcare
Most Sellers: Energy (1/3 of total)

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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