MARCH BADNESS:

This could prove to be a very exciting and critical month - market-wise, politically and economically. This week is a crucial Democratic test, the Ides of March offer an FOMC meeting, with the Fed expected to cut 50 basis points; St.Patrick's Day and Easter come in the same week, along with the NCAA basketball tournament. Traders' Almanac's Jeff Hirsch states that whenever Easter comes in March, the days before Good Friday and after Easter Sunday are not too good for the markets, atypical for Holidays.
Technically, the markets all broke up out of their symmetrical triangle, with a fakeout up to Resistance, and now have fallen to Support levels, which, if broken, could trigger all those black boxes into action. If, as Robert Prechter maintains, confidence leads markets, things are not looking too well. The U. if Michigan investor confidence fell to 70.8%, down from 78.4% in January; Conference Board's index is also down to a 5-year low, and the UBS indicator is waiting to be updated from December.
Despite this, the week's sentiment indicators are quite benign, almost Bullish: the CBOE put/call ratio is at 80, the McClellen Oscillator is getting oversold at -31, and the newsletter surveys are skeptical. From the early week rally, the Bullish per cent actually went on a Buy signal, as we test Range lows this week. Here are the numbers:

MktSentiment. 2/29/2008 Last Week..... 5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12266………12381………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2271………..2303…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1330………..1353…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …50……………72……………..92-1/08…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 26.5………..24.0…….…….44.. 9/02 bu........10.0-7/05 br
Intrade.com-
Recession% 60……………65……………75(bullish)….31(bearish)
McClellan Osc………-31………..…1……………91-5/04 br......(81)-5/04bu
McClelSum………10………………-65…………..1568-6/03.......-917

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…42……………41.6………..62.9-12/04br......35-6/06bu
Bear:………… 36.4………….33.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……34.3/45.3……..33.2/44.7……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…48…………….45…………. 74br..............24bu
UBS investor confidence..50 ………44nl -monthly
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …9.12…………8.88……………10………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…12.7………….10.5……….21bl…………..1.0br
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………26/52………..33.3/33.3
Bullish%- …………38…………..34……….…88 -2/04br.....19bu
*Insider corporate sellers..8………..18………..97…………..5
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Healthcare

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MARCH BADNESS: