News

Loading...

Monday, November 26, 2007

CMJ: CRITICAL MARKET JUNCTURE:

Both in cyclical timing and indices' lows, if we don't start a rally in the next few days, and continue down, all hell will break loose. Many sentiment indicators are at oversold extremes, where they could break, not bend.
The ISEE call/put(newly revised to just an inadequate hourly quote), similar to the CBOE Equity put/call ratio , has been deleted in favor of a new one - the Odds of Recession for '08, supplied by Intrade.com. A contrary indicator, 59% odds of a Recession is a market bottom, while 31% calls for a market top - we are currently at 46%.
Not only are the indices at strong support levels, the New Lows to New High ratios are double-digit; the McClellan Summation is negative 663, AAII Bears at 52%, with other surveys agreeing.
Finally, the all-important Bullish per cent is at a low 37% - an oversold bottom.
Here are the stats:
Mktsentiment. 11/23/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12980……….13177………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2596…………2637…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1440…………1459…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …73……………76……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.6……….25.5…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05
Intrade.com-
Recession% 46 ………….n/a……………59(bullish)….31(bearish)
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-28…………-54……………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-663…………..-417…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..….47.9………..51.1………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 26.6………..26.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……25.6/52.7……33/49.5……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…54……………58…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………70 ………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.42………..8.36….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…11.96……….10.34…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………57.1/28.6……on vaca…….
Bullish%- ………37……………40……….…88 -2/04...... 36
*Insider corporate sellers.8:1…….. 7:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 19, 2007

AND THE HITS JUST KEEP ON COMING:

An optimist would opine that the deeper this surge goes, the larger the ensuing rally. Mark Liebovit's quite reliable market model calls for a December rally, as does Helen Meisner (Street.com's technician) with 30-day MAs of both Volume and A/D lines.
Several Sentiment Indicators are also in oversold areas -but could always go lower. As the DJIA tests its August and recent lows near 13,000 (if it breaks down it confirms the Dow Theory of Transport confirmation), Bullish extremes exist in the CBOE put/call ratio (76) and the Bears of Inv.Intell. at 26.5 - AAII Bears are at 49% ; the McClellan Osc. is still below -50 with its concomitant Summation at -417; New Lows to Highs are 7:1 on the big board, public shorting is double digits, and the mutual funders (-$10B outflows) are running for the money markets.
A final sign is the legal Insider Selling at only 7:1, still in Tech and healthcare, while largest Buying is in Finance and Energy. See below:
Mktsentiment. 11/16/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13177……….13042………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2637…………2627…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1459…………1453…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …76……………73……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.5…………28.5…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 141…………156……………246………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-54…………-70……………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-417………….-155…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..….51.1…………54.5………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 26.7…………22.2………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……33/49.5………36.2/51.4……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…58…………….63…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………70 ………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.36………8.44….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…10.34……..11.86…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………on vaca……34.4/37.5…….
Bullish%- ………40……………54……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers. 7:1…….13:1….
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance, Energy
Most Sellers: Tech , Healthcare

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 12, 2007

Apres le deluge:

This week's extremes in Sentiment readings include the McClellan Oscillator at -70, the inverted bull/bear ratio of the AAII surveys, and the CBOE Equity put/call ratio of 73 - all strong signs of a short term cessation of downside price action. Public shorting was high, as was short interest. Money market inflows were huge at 63B for the week:
Mktsentiment. 11/9/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13042………..13595………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2627…………2810………….2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1453………….1509…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …73……………63……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 28.5………….23…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 156………….165……………246………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-70…………-24………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-155…………..112…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..….54.5………… 53.8………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 22.2…………23.1………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……36.2/51.4…….44.7/36.5……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…63……………64…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………70 ………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.44………8.63….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…11.86………8.31…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………34.4/37.5…….44.8/37.9
Bullish%- ………54………….62……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers. 13:1…...26:1….
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (1/3 of total 10 sectors)
Most Sellers: Tech , Healthcare

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark

Monday, November 5, 2007

TRADING PLACES:

Despite being in the most volatile time of year (September-October) we seem to be stuck in a trading range bounded by less than 1,000 points on the DJIA. Most Sentiment Indicators seem to be stuck in midrange, and the extremes fluctuate at both ends.
Money Markets went from record Inflows of $36B the prior week to $33B record Outflows last week. ETFs saw a rather high level of $8B Inflows after weeks of selling. Insider trading by CEOs, VPs, et.al. was quite concentrated with 2/3 of total Buying in 1 of the 10 Sectors - Finance; meanwhile 1/3 of Selling was in Tech - both the opposite of Conventional Wisdom, and pundit prattling. Selling outdid Buying 26:1, up from 13:1.
Here are last weeks findings:

Mktsentiment. 11/2/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 13595………..13806………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2810………….2805……….. 2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1509…………1535…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …63……………66……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 23……………22.9…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 165…………..246……………246………..118
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-24………….-2………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………112…………….280…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. 53.8………..56.5………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………….... 23.1…………22.9………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear …...…44.7/36.5…….31.3/48.2……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls….......64…………..63…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………70 ………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.63………8.56….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-..…8.31……….6.96 …..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …….....…44.8/37.9….44/42
Bullish%- ……........…54………….62……….…88 -2/04...... 46-8/04
*Insider corporate sellers..26:1….13:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance (2/3 of total 10- sectors)
Most Sellers: Tech (1/3 of total)

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


Subscribe in a reader


Share/Save/Bookmark