Monday, November 26, 2007

CMJ: CRITICAL MARKET JUNCTURE:

Both in cyclical timing and indices' lows, if we don't start a rally in the next few days, and continue down, all hell will break loose. Many sentiment indicators are at oversold extremes, where they could break, not bend.
The ISEE call/put(newly revised to just an inadequate hourly quote), similar to the CBOE Equity put/call ratio , has been deleted in favor of a new one - the Odds of Recession for '08, supplied by Intrade.com. A contrary indicator, 59% odds of a Recession is a market bottom, while 31% calls for a market top - we are currently at 46%.
Not only are the indices at strong support levels, the New Lows to New High ratios are double-digit; the McClellan Summation is negative 663, AAII Bears at 52%, with other surveys agreeing.
Finally, the all-important Bullish per cent is at a low 37% - an oversold bottom.
Here are the stats:
Mktsentiment. 11/23/2007 Last Week..... .5Yr.HI...... LOW

DJIA ………. 12980……….13177………..14093..............7286
Nasdaq………. 2596…………2637…………2810.............1114
S&P500…….. 1440…………1459…………1561………..776
CBOE Eq. put/call …73……………76……………91…..........46-1/03

VIX ………. 25.6……….25.5…………….44.. 9/02........10.0-7/05
Intrade.com-
Recession% 46 ………….n/a……………59(bullish)….31(bearish)
All Equities (ETF)
McClel Osc…………-28…………-54……………91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum………-663…………..-417…………..1568-6/03.......(917)

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..….47.9………..51.1………..62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 26.6………..26.7………… 38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……25.6/52.7……33/49.5……..n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…54……………58…………. 74..............24
UBS investor confidence..70………70 ………178……………53
(monthly change)
IBD: Short Interest- …8.42………..8.36….……8.95………. 4.0
Public/NYSE Spec.-…11.96……….10.34…..……18.25……….1.0
Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll ………57.1/28.6……on vaca…….
Bullish%- ………37……………40……….…88 -2/04...... 36
*Insider corporate sellers.8:1…….. 7:1
Sectors: Most Buyers: Finance
Most Sellers: Tech

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