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Monday, January 29, 2007

Groundhog Day? Same old,same old:

Despite a Volatility hiccup last week (largest up and down days of this young year) most of the Sentiment Indicators remain in a zone.
The global liquidity struggle is between lessening inflows from our mid-East and other Oil suppliers earning 33% less on their product (poor chaps), and Asia's wait and see attitude on our bonds/rates; the positive side is our seasonal inflows from bonuses, retirement contributions and tax returns, which, in most mutual funds, are mandated to be put to use - managers don't get paid to watch Money Market Funds.
In a very interesting Schwab Internet call last week, among other things, they reported that we now have the lowest Supply of stocks since 1988, mainly due to Private Equity takeovers and minimal IPOs last year.
For the week, standouts include the UBS Confidence survey, which breached the 100 mark for the first time in months ( it was in the 50s when the long rally started in June-Sept.).
On the Bull side, CBOE's put/call ratio jumped to a recent high of 64, the AAII Bears jumped 6 points to 33.3%, and Public to NYSE Specialist shorting nearly reached to old high of 7.84 with its 7.53 reading.
Below is the weekly summary:

Mktsentiment. 1/19/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12487...........12556...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2435............2502............1114
S&P500…….. 1422............1430............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 64.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 11.1.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. 147...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-9...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 676...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..52.7...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 20.9 .........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 39.5/33.3.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 70......... 73..............24

Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll …………21.6/45.9

Bullish%- ………74...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 22, 2007

JANUS, THE TWO-FACED GOD:

After an Up-Escalator Fall, we can now blame this month's volatility on Janus, January's namesake, and Monday's downmove on reaction to Friday's option expiry. The Hirsch Almanac states that so goes January, so goes the year, although this is slightly flawed since the year contains January, giving it a head start in either direction.
Since Barron's has seen fit to delete the Citi/Smith-Barney Panic/Euphoria Index, it is being replaced by Birinyi's tickersense.typepad.com Blogger's poll of sophisticated investment writers. Time will tell if it is a contrary or direct indicator. We start this out with 21% Bulls and 45% Bears.
Standouts last week were the new highs on the Dow and good breadth on large caps. Although the Inv.Intell. Bulls dropped from 55 to 50%, the AAII Bulls jumped up from 44 to 57%, while Bears dropped from 34 to 27% -quite a gap.
Mutual fund and ETF inflows have turned around to increasing (could be Bearish with public entering). And Insider Selling has increased to 39:1, and the U. of Michigan Confidence number at 98 is a 3-year high.
Here is the grid:
Mktsentiment. 1/19/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12565nh...........12556...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2451............2502............1114
S&P500…….. 1430............1430............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 57.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 10.4.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. 139...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……6...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 692...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..50.5...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 22.1.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 57.6/27.3.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 70......... 73..............24

Birinyi Blogger
Bull/Bear Poll.................21.6/45.9
Bullish%- ………74...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, January 16, 2007

ONWARD AND UPWARD:

Those fortunate enough to attend the very civilized TSAA meeting last
week at Alfred's steak house in San Francisco got to hear Joe Turner of
Pring/Turner Mgmt. talk about the 4-year cycle, and the current market's
position in it. He opined that despite the anomaly of both Bonds and
Commodities (inflation) rising simulataneously, we should be on the verge
of Stage VI, which is Bearish for all securities - bonds, stocks and
commodities.
While breaking to new millenium highs we are also seeing some Bearish
tones in the Indicators: the CBOE put/call at 61; AAII Bears rising 5 %
to 34.3; short interest near its highs.
On the other hand, CyberTrader reports very low mutual fund cash and
extreme margin debt, at levels similar to 2000.
At some point the lower
price of oil, great for consumers and transportation, but a dangerous
negative for inflows from our oil-supplying countries, cold trigger
Turner's bearish scenario.
Here are the numbers:

Mktsentiment. 1/12/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12556nh...........12556...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2502nh............2502............1114
S&P500…….. 1430............1430............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 61.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 10.15.........44 9/02........10.0-11/06

ISEE-call/put ……. 154...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……7...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 692...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..55.4...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 20.7.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 44.3/34.3.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 68......... 73..............24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx…. na........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05

Bullish%- ………74...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Monday, January 8, 2007

FACE THE BARRONS WASTE:

Barron's has reduced the size of its weekly paper (its presses print the newly reduced WSJ), has rearranged the deck chairs inits Market Lab, and eliminated the Master Indicator - the Citi Panic/Euphoria Index, which rarely surfaced above the Panic line. So this Indicator will probably go away, although I have an e-mail in to them, and have checked Citi's and Smith Barney's websites to no avail. Although flawed, its recent high reading did foretell the recent selloff.
Breadth-wise, the McClellan Oscillator is down near that -50 support normal area, which bodes for at least a halt in the decline, although many other Indicators are coming down off overbought readings, including the Summation Index, the Bullish percent, and newsletter surveys. The AAII, however, widened its spread of Bull/Bears, with the Bears at 29%, well off the 40s recent levels.
Here are the numbers:

Mktsentiment. 1/05/2007......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12398...........12463...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2434............2460............1114
S&P500…….. 1409............1427............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 56.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 12.14.........44 9/02........10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 150...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-48...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1153nh) 782...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..55.3...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 21.3.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 49/29.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. 69......... 73..............24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx…. na........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05

Bullish%- ………73...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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Tuesday, January 2, 2007

BOWL ME OVER:

How about all them bowl games? From Poinsetta to Meineke, the biggest
thriller was Central Michigan over Mid Tennessee 31-14! Not!
Almost as many bowls as there are strategists, analysts, fund managers
and other investors who are Bullish on '07. The Conventional Wisdom is
that there is too much liquidity sloshing around, first of the year cash
inflows, much of it mandated by funds and ETFs who cannot hold cash, for the market not to continue to keep rising.
However, CrossCurrents.com says up to 50% of stock price rise is due to ETF
accumulation, not valuation. And Corporate Insiders, per Thomson
Financial, are selling at a 35:1 ratio, much over the 10:1 average
(although year-end option activity must be considered as part of the
complex equation).
As for the Indicators, notable extremes were: after several weeks Mutual
Fund inflows turned back to positive, albeit only $1B, with ETFs doubling
that.
The short term call/put ratio from ISE was the highest at 165 (read
bearish) since late April of '06.
Finally, IBD's short interest ratio of the NYSE hit a new high of 7.01 while the Investor's Intelligence % of Bears fell below 20 at 19.6 for the first time since Aug. of '05, and not
far above the 5-year low of June '03's, 16% Bears!

Here are the numbers for the last week in 2006:

Mktsentiment. 12/29/2006......5Yr.HI........ LOW

DJIA ………. 12463...........12463...........7286
Nasdaq………. 2415............2460............1114
S&P500…….. 1418............1427............776
CBOE Equity put/call . 60.............87-5/04........46-1/03

VIX ………. 11.56.........44 9/02........10.3-7/05

ISEE-call/put ……. 165...........299-12/04.......82-4/02
(>200/Bearish)

McClel Osc.(+75/-100)……-22...............91-5/04.........(81)-5/04
McClelSum.(+750/-1000) 874...........1568-6/03.......(726)-5/04

Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel -Bull:…..…. ..56.5...........62.9-12/04......35-6/06
Bear:………… 19.6.........38.2-3/03.......16-6/03

AAII-Bull/Bear ……. 46/36.....n/a n/a
MarketVane Bulls…. na......... 73..............24

Barron's Panic/
Euphoric Master Idx…. -0.35........-0.24 4/06.....-0.75 11/05

Bullish%- ………77...............88 -2/04...... 46-8/04

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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